Well, I'm throwing in the towel on this one. I've never been more perplexed with a plugin, so I'm just going to roll without it.
I did a completely vanilla XP11 install (no add-ons, no custom scenery, no plug-ins) it's fine. But the moment I start adding things the inconsistent of CTD on sim load begins.
Installed SAM
I launched the sim 25 times with just SAM installed after a fresh XP11 install, no crash.
Installed Toliss A319
I launched the sim 25 times with the 319 + SAM and the sim crashed on launches: 4, 17, 22, and 23
Uninstalled Toliss A319
I launched the sim 25 times with all Toliss related files removed (and just SAM installed) and the sim crashed on launches 6, 18, and 20
Removed SAM, installed the Toliss A319
I launched the sim 25 times and zero crashes
I didn't even attempt any other 3rd party plugins or scenery yet.
Then I went with the default Baron (no payware aircraft, clean install of SIM) + SAM
No crash with 25 successful sim launches
What's crazy is, every single time the sim CTDs there's never an entry in the log or dump. I've now slowly re-added everything (payware aircraft, 850+ scenery folders) and no sim crashes after 100+ launches. But if I put SAM in there, it crashes to desktop on load every time. So there's clearly something happening, I'm obviously not convinced it's SAM but the sim only crashes with SAM present in the plugins folder.
So we'll have to file this under "unsolved mysteries"